Analytically Looking When Players Drop Off

When RBs, WRs, and TEs, peak

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Welcome to another piece! We’re going to have a ton of content coming out in early August…so get ready - it’s almost drafting season.

Today We’re Looking at When NFL Players Rise and Peak in Fantasy Football

There’s stats on when RBs, WRs, and TEs generally peak and fall off – the findings are CRUCIAL to doing well in your fantasy league. The full findings are here but here’s the summary and a run down who we think may fit the bill:

Running Backs: During Year 1 -> Year 2, RBs typically take a big jump forward and keep that level of performance from years 2-6. However, year 7 is typically when decline starts and by year 9, fantasy productivity is even worse than it was at the rookie level. This shows that typically drafting a RB during the first five years of their career is the move.

Austin Ekeler is the prime example. Preseason, he was last year’s RB2, and some even called him RB1. We were initially bullish on him too given how amazing he was the year before! But father time caught up to him last year. In 2022 Ekeler finished with 915 rush yds, 13 rush TDs, 107 recs, 722 rec yds, and 5 rec TDs. In 14 games in 2023 Ekeler finished with 628 rush yds, 5 rush TDs, 51 recs, 436 rec yds, and 1 rec TD.

RBs that could fall off this year:

  1. At some point McCaffrey is going to fall off…he’s still performing at a very high level, but at some point the tide will change. We’ll give him a chance this year though.

  2. Derrick Henry: We still think King Henry has some juice left in him, and enters a favorable situation in Baltimore as RB1 (think about how well Gus Edwards did last year). But at some point things will change. We believe in Henry this year - but think this could be Henry’s last good year.

  3. Alvin Kamara: Kamara is a volume king, had a solid 3.9 ypc, and involved in the pass game, but he is getting older as a 28 year old. He was ranking 40th last year in being able to create missed tackles, showing his age is getting to him a bit.

Younger RBs we like: We’ve flipped a bit on Zamir White as RB24 at a 75 ADP - as we rewatched the tape and was really impressed with his end of the season finish. Alexander Mattison, his competition, is not a suitable backup. If you’re a ZERO RB guy - this is your guy!

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Wide Receivers: 

They typically have pretty bad rookie years - that’s why we don’t overdraft rookies normally (we love the setup for Marvin Harrison Jr. and like the setup with Malik Nabers though). But usually it’s better to wait and see. Year 2 or 3 is historically a massive leap, but after 6 years in the league WRs typically start regressing with rookie level performance come year 10. Years 2-7 are the best timeframes to draft a WR.

WRs that could fall off this year:

  1. Cooper Kupp: Kupp has actually performed about the same as Puka Nacua when both of them are playing - but Kupp has some issues staying on the field. Kupp’s productivity is there, but his reliability as a 31 year old isn’t, making him a gamble as he continues sliding down the draft board at an 39 ADP.

  2. Keenan Allen: The 32 year old has left the pass heavy Chargers. He also will face steep competition for targets in the Chicago pass game with a rookie QB on top of it all. DJ Moore had 136 targets, Cole Kmet had 90 targets, and rookie Rome Odunze will likely draw looks away from Allen as well.

  3. Davante Adams: The 31 year old seems to find himself trapped on this weak Raiders offense with Aidan O’Connell listed as the QB1. O’Connell did not have one game throwing over 300 passing yards last season. With a run heavy offense, plus Brock Bowers now in the mix, we’re not drafting Adams in the 2nd round.

  4. Tyler Lockett: He regressed last year to WR39, and with JSN waiting in the wings, plus generally poor QB play from Geno Smith (or Sam Howell), it’s probably time to avoid the 32 year old.

In terms of 2nd year WRs we like….Johnston, Flowers, Addison, JSN, Rashee Rice (obviously given the lengthy suspension he’s facing), and Marvin Mims aren’t in the best positions. We think Zay Flowers has the best upside in that group, although Mark Andrews’s involvement limits his looks. Flowers is fairly valued a a 53 ADP and as WR25 though. Jayden Reed at WR33 at a 71 ADP may be the most interesting sophomore. He caught on fire towards the end of last year, and played in a Deebo like role. The downside is the Packers spread the ball around a lot, plus if Christian Watson stays healthy this may hurt Reed in the depth chart.

Tight Ends: Sam LaPorta was the rare exception towards the general rule to not draft a first year TE. Usually, their historical performance is atrocious. Let someone else in your league make that mistake. However, in year 2 TEs typically have a massive breakout year. TEs can have significant durability in the league, if you’re a good TE you can continue to perform incredibly well even into your 30s. TEs do typically peak in year 6, but GOOD tight ends can have productive fantasy years through the 12th year of their career. Therefore, a TE in their 3rd -6th years, a TE who will break out in their 2nd year, or a TE who is a future hall of famer are the best paths you can go.

TEs that could fall off this year:

  1. Taysom Hill: Yes for the 33 year old swiss army knife, his most elusive days are definitely behind him. He always a stash away guy, but the Saints’ main short game attacking options look slower than malaise this year.

  2. Unfortunately Travis Kelce actually regressed last year. We’re not saying not to draft him, cause he’s still a top 5, maybe top 2 TE - but we’ve probably seen his best days. It’s okay to admit he’s older and will lose out a bit from KC bringing in better WRs this year.

Conclusion: If you’re looking for deep value picks, you should look at year 2 or year 3 players in later rounds. If you’re looking for players in the prime, RBs are great years 2-5, WRs are great years 2/3-7, and TEs are at their best in their 3rd-6th years, or if they’re a well known stud. However, don’t let age cause you to miss out on a good value, starter level player who still performs well enough.

Until next time.

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