Biggest Offseason Fantasy Losers

The Biggest Fantasy Football Offseason Losers

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Welcome back!

Here’s Part II of our series calling out Fantasy Football Offseason Winners and Losers.

Let’s get into the Offseason Losers:

QBs:

Justin Herbert: Herbert lost all his receivers and now his new coach Jim Harbaugh wants to run a run-heavy offense…yikes. It would be a waste to not use Herbert’s talents though, so I’m sure he’ll be okay to some extent, but a receiving room led by Ladd McConkey and Quinton Johnston isn’t great…

Deshaun Watson: The Browns failed to build around Chubb, and Amari Cooper. Watson still really only has those options around him. Is Jerry Jeudy truly going to be the answer in Cleveland for Watson to take this offense to the next level? Also, the major draft additions that seem to benefit the team are again on the defensive side, with the offensive picks being lackluster.

Josh Allen: We still think Josh Allen will have a great year…but are his offensive options much worse than it was last year? Absolutely. He was QB1 last year - but it’s going to be hard to replicate that this year. Josh Allen lost his number one target in Stefon Diggs and his number two WR in Gabe Davis. To replace this hole, the Bills signed Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling; as well as drafting Keon Coleman. His top returning options are his TEs…Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, plus overhyped WR Khalil Shakir. Due to the salary cap, this is the weakest room Allen has had to deal with in a while, but we still expect him to be a top 5 QB.

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RBs:

Devon Achane: With Jaylen Wright drafted in the 4th round, the Dolphins clearly wanted to beef up their RB room. Our gut is the Dolphins want to rotate carries significantly. With Mostert still probably the lead back in the rotation, the smaller and injury prone Achane is probably the one who sees share loss. We get this may be an unpopular opinion - Achane was INSANE when he first started getting going. Achane was RB22 with only 10 games (2 games with injury too), rushing for 744 yards (8 ypc), 7 rushing TDs, and 26 receptions with 3 receiving TDs. BUT he wasn’t someone you really could trust unless Mostert was out. Plus, his role became diminished over time, despite the great fantasy stats. That’s what makes us lean that Achane is capped in how much he’ll get the ball. He can still be explosive, but Jaylen Wright joining the mix steals share from him.

Javonte Williams: The former 2nd rounder is dealing with a hyper competitive RB room and probably the worst offense in the league. We’ve got a 4-way competition between Williams, Samaje Perine, Audric Estime (rookie), and Jaleel McLaughlin to start the preseason. There’s some real worries Williams isn’t the same player he was post the ACL, LCL, and PCL tear he experienced in 2022 as well.

Austin Ekeler: Moving to Washington, he’s technically #1 in the depth chart but Brian Robinson seems like the better player IMO? We’re done with Ekeler, the prior year’s RB2 who ended at RB29 and clearly looked like he lost a step (he’ll be 29 this year).

Tony Pollard: We actually think Tony Pollard could find himself as RB2 by the end of the season, with Tyjae Spears being the better and faster option in Tennessee. Last year Pollard started slow and struggled to get into the endzone, he had 935 rushing yards (4 ypc) with 53 targets and 295 receiving yards but only 5 rushing TDs. Sure Pollard was coming off an injury, but in the lead back role it became clear that Pollard is meant to be more of a RB2, or a “1-2 punch” guy.

James Conner: This may surprise you, but this is the year we’re done with James Conner. Yes, this is while Conner was RB9 on a points per game basis (got hurt and missed 4 games) with 890 rushing yards (4.9 ypc) with 6 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. With FSU Rookie Trey Benson now a Cardinal, plus Conner now 29, we’re ready to fade Conner in the mid-rounds. If he falls late, then sure, we’ll give him a look, but he’s no longer mid-round value in our opinion. Ultimately, with new competition, getting hurt every year, plus getting up there in age, we’re ready to call it with Conner.

The Raiders RB room: Alexander Mattison and Zamir White make up the Raiders RB room. Don’t fall for either of these guys. Mattison showed last year he just isn’t a good RB, playing at a RB44 points per game level last year. Meanwhile, White has been benchwarming Josh Jacobs for 2 years and hasn’t shown us anything worth getting excited about.

WRs:

Justin Jefferson: Last year’s clear #1 is in a precarious spot going into 2024. Kirk Cousins is gone and Jefferson’s injury concerns last year rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. With either Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy throwing him the ball, this is a massive drop-off of a situation for the former WR1. We view CeeDee Lamb as the WR1 in Fantasy right now, and we’ll get back to you soon on how far we think JJ should be sliding.

Stefon Diggs: In the 2nd half of last year, Diggs faltered to bench level quality once the new Bills OC came in. With a new scenery in Houston, he’s got a significant amount of competition from Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Dalton Schultz. While this is great for CJ Stroud, this is not good for an aging WR and Diggs’ best days may be behind him.

Davante Adams: We love Davante as a talent, but last year he was WR16 with 98 recs for 1,098 yds and 7 TDs. His teammate Jakobi Meyers was WR28 with 68 recs for 747 rec yds and 7 TDs, a clear share stealer. Now with two mid QBs (Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew) vying for the starting spot, plus Brock Bowers also in the mix, you have a very talented WR who is wasting the last good years of his career at a mid team so he can have a nice payday. We have to respect Davante getting the bag, he’s earned it, but it sucks seeing him deal with potentially another ceiling confined QB in Minshew, instead of a great QB.

Courtland Sutton: The Broncos are set to be one of the worst offenses this year, with either rookie Bo Nix or Jets washout Zach Wilson as the starter. Although Jerry Jeudy is no longer on the team, the poor offensive play and the packed receiver room will cap Sutton’s upside. The upside case is that Sutton gets traded to a contender.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle disappointed relative to expectations last year, with 1,014 receiving yards but only 4 TDs in 14 games last year. While Jaylen Waddle will still be relatively productive, we expect Waddle to be facing even more competition for targets with the Dolphins adding OBJ to the receiving mix. Plus, they have quite an expansive backfield that will be taking away from the passing game in general (Mostert/Achane/Wright).

TEs:

TJ Hockenson: With Kirk Cousins gone, Hock is going to slip from his perch as a top Fantasy TE. We’re not comfortable drafting him given the weaker QB room and think the Vikings are entering a “rebuild” year.

Darren Waller: He seemed really washed last year, ending at TE14 on a points per game basis. QB and OL play was horrific, but he seems past his prime and is debating retiring this offseason. The Giants drafted TE Theo Johnson as a potential replacement plan for the erratic Waller.

That’s all for this edition! We’ll be back in July to discuss players in more details as the fantasy season nears closer!

Until next time.