The Zero Running Back Strategy

Fantasy Football Strategies You Need To Assess

Author

HY Harry
June 27, 2024

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The Zero Running Back Strategy

This is a phenomenon that has gained significant traction lately. The idea behind the Zero RB strategy is not draft a RB until the fifth or sixth round and to instead focus on drafting elite WRs, QBs, and/or a top TE. Then, you’re supposed to draft a RB with high upside. Usually these are rookie-second year RBs, or a RB who is a bell cow for their offense. This is a highly contrarian bet since most of your friends go RB-heavy.

Another reason for the Zero RB strategy is that 1) injuries can play out, and given the fragility of the position there’s potential for more “busts” 2) it’s difficult to predict coaches changing things – going to a committee, rotating the top RB, or giving all the receiving plays to a RB2.

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Our thoughts: To be fair, proponents of the zero RB strategy still say “Hey it’s okay if you’re drafting early and picking an elite RB”. If you have a top RB within your grasp, I think you should go for it 100%. But, I think waiting until the fifth round, or even the sixth round to get a RB is a mistake. I think you should have at least one (doesn’t have to be two) RBs within your first four picks.

If you’re taking moonshots on RBs (betting on rookies or second years) you might have to wait a while for them to develop. For example, Breece Hall took a while to get going again last year, but then ended up having a monster end of the season. If you’re going to lean on an equivalent to those guys, and you might have to potentially start them, you may be losing key early season matchups because you didn’t draft a starter ready RB.

Does it work? The reality is - it’s all dependent on which RBs you selected. Hate to sound like a lawyer, but “It depends” is the answer.

Zero RBs that were great (or good):

  • Raheem Mostert - 1,012 rush yds (10th in NFL), 18 rush TDs (1st in NFL)

  • Kyren Williams - 1,144 rush yds (3rd in NFL), 12 rush TDs (7th in NFL)

  • Breece Hall - 994 rush yds (13th in NFL), 76 receptions (1st for all RBs), 591 rec yds (1st for all RBs), 4 rec TDs (T-3rd for all RBs)

  • David Montgomery - 1,015 rush yds (9th in NFL), 13 rush TDs (T-5th in NFL)

  • Rachaad White - 272 rush atts (2nd in NFL), 990 rush yds (14th in NFL), 549 rec yds (3rd for all RBs)

  • James Cook - 1,122 rush yds (4th in NFL), 445 rec yds (8th for all RBs), 4 rec TDs (T-3rd for all RBs)

  • Gus Edwards - 13 rush TDs (T-5th in NFL)

  • James Conner - 1,040 rush yds (6th in NFL), 7 rush TDs (T-16th in NFL)

  • Isiah Pacheco - 935 rush yds (18th in NFL), 7 rush TDs (T-16th in NFL)

Zero RBs that were terrible:

  • Miles Sanders 432 rush yds (48th in NFL), 1 rush TD (T-86th in NFL)

  • Rhamondre Stevenson - 619 rush yds (39th in NFL), 4 rush TDs (T-35th in NFL)

  • Alexander Mattison - 700 rush yds (32nd in NFL), 0 rush TDs (T-last in NFL)

  • Khalil Herbert - 611 rush yds (41st in NFL), 2 rush TDs (T-59th in NFL)

  • Dameon Pierce - 416 rush yds (51st in NFL), 2 rush TDs (T-59th in NFL)

  • Cam Akers - 167 rush yds (T-96th in NFL), 2 rush TDs (T-59th in NFL)

  • Dalvin Cook - 214 rush yds (T-81st in NFL), 0 rush TDs (T-last in NFL)

Christian McCaffrey was amazing, and then guys like Mostert and Williams took the league by storm. But heavyweights like Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler ended as RB19 and RB27 brutally - so if you took them early as a “top” RB, then you got burned hard.

The Zero RB strategy would really start to take place in the 50-70 pick range depending on how many people are in your league. So let’s take a look at some potentially attractive options.

Late Round RBs to target:

  • Aaron Jones (ADP 58) - At the end of last season, Aaron Jones started showing how much value he has when he is healthy, and he broke out from the GB committee. He ran over 110 yards in each of the last three games of the year. Now he joins a Minnesota offense in desperate need of a lead back.

  • Najee Harris (ADP 61) - He hasn’t had a year with under 1,000 rushing yards yet and people still talk down on him.

  • Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 63) - Weeks 1-8 with his rolling ankle sprain really hurt Stevenson’s stat-line last year on top of the fact he ended his season with an ankle injury against the chargers. He really had 3 weeks when he was healthy, and put up at least 80 rush yds in each game, and had 1 rush TD in 2 of the 3 games.

  • D’Andre Swift (ADP 67) - The new RB in Chicago had a sneaky 1,000 yard season last year, and is an Solid pass catching back on top of it. His involvement in the passing game wasn’t utilized in Philadelphia as much last year, as it was his first season with under 350 rec yds.

  • Zamir White (ADP 73) - The new RB1 for Las Vegas shifted to the clear option in the last 4 games of the year where he averaged 99.3 rush yds/game. When used during those games, he became a very clear workhorse type of back.

  • David Montgomery (ADP 74) - People forget Montgomery was the Red Zone favorite over Gibbs for most of the season, and will still be utilized heavily. Montgomery had the 5th most rush TDs within the 5 yard line (8 rush TDs).

  • Tony Pollard (ADP 89) - Pollard was 1 of 6 RBs last year to have 300 or more carries & receptions. If that production continues in Tennessee, the value on this pick would be very serviceable. Additionally, Pollard struggled at the beginning of last year due to coming off of an injury.

  • Raheem Mostert (ADP 90) - Mostert remains the #1 in Miami even though they drafted Jaylen Wright, and have De’Von Achane. He is a red zone fiend under the Miami scheme with 12 rush TDs when in the red-zone (T-1st in NFL). Additionally, as we saw last year, the smaller frame Achane seems pretty injury prone.

  • Devin Singletary (ADP 96) - The new #1 for the New York Giants should be a better late round pick. In each of the last 3 seasons, he has ran over 800 rush yds. He usurped the RB job from Pierce last year in Houston.

  • Tyjae Spears (ADP 99) - Tyjae’s upside should be considered since he was a rookie last year. He was a good pass catching RB with 385 rec yds (11th in the NFL). Expect him to be a fair value RB2 behind Tony Pollard this year.

  • Nick Chubb (ADP 103) - The Browns still hesitate to update the timetable of return for Nick Chubb who will be coming off of a bad ACL injury last year. Because of the injury, this gives him a very low floor, but it is a high risk, high reward pick given Chubb’s previous quality. We still prefer the guys we mentioned ahead of him though.

Conclusion: We favor WRs early on, but we’re generally fans of 1 RB within your first 4 picks, maybe even your first 3 picks. We like the idea of not reaching for RBs while everyone else is and instead taking top WRs. Our drafting goal is to get as many top 15 WRs as we can. However, I am in favor of a balanced approach: Within the first 5 picks: Take 1 QB, 1-2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and a maybe top TE. You should have top tier candidates for each position and if they all go, then it’s time to bide time and wait until the time when you start taking sleeper picks. This is our collective view, but each person finds different ways to find success.

We’ll be back with more in July!